UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Portland, USA
29 Aug 2009
Middleweight
VS
31%
Simpson
69%
Herman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:17
AS
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
12 – 5
6'0"73" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
EH
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27 – 16
Well-Rounded2-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'1"
CFR 39

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herman

Herman holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Simpson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Herman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Striking split: Herman throws more volume but Simpson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Herman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Simpson
Herman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+77"
51
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Simpson
Herman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
38.7
46.0
Performance Avg
47.4
34
Quality of Victory
44
76
Momentum Score
82
Simpson
Herman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Simpson
Herman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Simpson
Herman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
26/43 fights
Simpson
Herman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
82
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Simpson
Herman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
69%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
5
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Simpson
Herman
Striking4.1 / 4.1Volume7.0 / 3.5Grappling1.7 / 3.8Wrestling1.2 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 3.9Pressure3.9 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Simpson
RND
Herman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Simpson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.4W4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W2.8L2009-042010-062011-072012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Herman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L1.5L5.0W5.2W5.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W1.8L5.2W4.0L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W6.4L4.4L2006-062009-042014-052019-112023-04
WinLossTrend

Simpson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Mike PierceRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

Herman · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Aaron Simpson · Ed Herman
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