UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Jacksonville, USA
9 Apr 2022
Heavyweight
VS
76%
Oleinik
24%
Vanderaa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:39
AO
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
60 – 17
6'2"80" reachOrthodox48 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 27
JV
Jared Vanderaa
12 – 10
Well-Rounded5-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oleinik

Oleinik is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Oleinik has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.

Striking split: Vanderaa throws more volume but Oleinik connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Oleinik's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Vanderaa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Oleinik
Vanderaa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
80"
Reach
80"
48
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
8.4
52.0
Performance Avg
20.7
51
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
0
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
13
2
Body
2
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance7
0Clinch1
0Ground7
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/77 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oleinik
Vanderaa
Striking2.2 / 0.3Volume1.9 / 8.3Grappling6.5 / 2.4Wrestling4.5 / 1.7Submission7.8 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 0.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
6.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
7.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Oleinik
Strike Zones
Vanderaa
Oleinik
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY3LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Vanderaa
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY3LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oleinik targets the head (38% of attacks) — Vanderaa absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Vanderaa targets the head (87% of attacks) — Oleinik absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oleinik
RND
Vanderaa
0/0R00/0

Oleinik · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.7L5.0W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.2W4.5W3.3L1.8L6.0L5.0W5.5L2014-062017-112020-012022-042022-10
WinLossTrend

Vanderaa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0103.3L6.1W3.5L6.2L1.5L4.0L7.0L2021-022021-102022-042022-10
WinLossTrend

Oleinik · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Jared VanderaaRating 5
Submission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08

Vanderaa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · KO · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · KO · R2
Alexandr RomanovRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10

News & Media

Aleksei Oleinik · Jared Vanderaa
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