METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Jacksonville, USA
9 Apr 2022
Heavyweight
VS
76%
Oleinik
24%
Vanderaa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:39
★ Official Result
Aleksei OleinikwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:39
def. Jared Vanderaa · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oleinik
→
Actual result
Oleinik wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Oleinik is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oleinik has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Risk flags
Oleinik's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vanderaa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OleinikVanderaa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
80"
Reach
80"
49
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
8.4
52.0
Performance Avg
20.7
51
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
0
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
7.8
Style: Pressure
0.4
1.9
Style: Volume
8.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
13
2
Body
2
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance7
0Clinch1
0Ground7
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
4.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
7.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
7
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/77 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oleinik
Vanderaa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
6.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
7.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
OleinikVanderaa
Strike Zones
Oleinik
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedVanderaa
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oleinik targets the head (38% of attacks) — Vanderaa absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Vanderaa targets the head (87% of attacks) — Oleinik absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oleinik
RND
Vanderaa
0/0R00/0
Oleinik · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Jared VanderaaSubmission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacDecision
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Chris DaukausKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R2
Derrick LewisKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Vanderaa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · KO · R3
Chase ShermanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikSubmission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiDecision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · KO · R2
Alexandr RomanovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10