UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Flyweight
VS
50%
Cariaso
50%
Pettis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17 – 8
5'3"64" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
SP
Sergio Pettis
18 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cariaso

This is a genuine toss-up — Cariaso at 50% vs Pettis at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Cariaso has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pettis has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cariaso
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+69"
44
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
14.2
39.1
Performance Avg
40.7
29
Quality of Victory
25
45
Momentum Score
55
Cariaso
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground3
Cariaso
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cariaso
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Cariaso
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cariaso
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cariaso
Pettis
Striking2.5 / 1.3Volume7.9 / 9.3Grappling2.1 / 2.4Wrestling1.4 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 1.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
Cariaso
Strike Zones
Pettis
Cariaso
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Pettis
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the head (67% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cariaso
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cariaso · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L7.0L5.5L2011-012012-072014-022015-10
WinLossTrend

Pettis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.4W7.0L4.5W5.5L6.7L4.7W2013-112015-032017-082018-122019-09
WinLossTrend

Cariaso · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tyson NamRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jussier FormigaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

News & Media

Chris Cariaso · Sergio Pettis
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