METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter
Hollywood, USA
10 Oct 2006
Middleweight
VS
31%
MacDonald
69%
Herman
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:43
★ Official Result
Jason MacDonaldwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:43
def. Ed Herman · Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herman
→
Actual result
MacDonald wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Herman holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but MacDonald has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
MacDonald's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Herman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MacDonaldHerman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
MacDonald
Herman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
77"
51
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Herman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
38.7
48.8
Performance Avg
47.4
53
Quality of Victory
44
52
Momentum Score
82
MacDonald
Herman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
8.3
Style: Pressure
6.4
0.9
Style: Volume
3.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
MacDonald
Herman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.3
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
3.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
6.7
Submission Style (/10)
3.9
4
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
MacDonald
Herman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/41 fights
Chin rating based on
26/43 fights
MacDonald
Herman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
82
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
MacDonald
Herman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
69%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
5
0
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
MacDonald
Herman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
MacDonaldHerman
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedHerman
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (80% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Herman targets the legs (100% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
MacDonald
RND
Herman
0/0R00/0
MacDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom LawlorKO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R1
Ryan JensenSubmission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · KO · R1
John SalterKO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Nate QuarryKO/TKO
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04
Herman · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05