METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
Las Vegas, USA
3 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
31%
Ellenberger
69%
Masvidal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:05
★ Official Result
Jorge MasvidalwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:05
def. Jake Ellenberger · The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Masvidal
→
Actual result
Masvidal wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Masvidal holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Ellenberger has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Masvidal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EllenbergerMasvidal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+74"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
35.2
45.7
Performance Avg
47.0
45
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
43
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.2
42%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
26
1
Body
9
3
Leg
9
RangeRange
9Distance26
2Clinch12
0Ground6
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
43
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ellenberger
Masvidal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
EllenbergerMasvidal
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedMasvidal
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (64% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (59% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ellenberger
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Masvidal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11