UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
London, United Kingdom
16 Feb 2013
Welterweight
VS
58%
Mills
42%
Riddle
Win Probability
CM
Che Mills
"Beautiful"
16 – 10
6'1"76" reachOrthodox43 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 26
MR
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
8 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak40 yrsSouthpaw76" reach6'1"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mills

This is a genuine toss-up — Mills at 58% vs Riddle at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mills has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.

Mills has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Mills
Riddle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
76"
43
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mills
Riddle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.5
18.3
62.7
Performance Avg
45.6
60
Quality of Victory
29
95
Momentum Score
88
Mills
Riddle
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
43%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
4
1
Body
0
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance2
1Clinch1
6Ground2
Mills
Riddle
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mills
Riddle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12 fights
Mills
Riddle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
88
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mills
Riddle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
14%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mills
Riddle
Striking10.0 / 2.8Volume1.3 / 7.1Grappling0.0 / 1.7Wrestling0.0 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure9.0 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Mills
Strike Zones
Riddle
Mills
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY5LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Riddle
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY5LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mills targets the head (50% of attacks) — Riddle absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Riddle targets the head (80% of attacks) — Mills absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mills
RND
Riddle
0/0R00/0

Mills · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W2.8L5.0W2011-112012-042012-09
WinLossTrend

Riddle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W2008-062009-112010-122012-11
WinLossTrend

Mills · Last 4

Upcoming
Matthew Riddle
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Rory MacDonaldRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
W · KO · R1
Chris CopeRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11

Riddle · Last 5

Upcoming
Che Mills
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
Upcoming
Chris Clements
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
Henry MartinezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
L · Dec · R3
Lance BenoistRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09

News & Media

Che Mills · Matthew Riddle
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