UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Cincinnati, USA
10 May 2014
Middleweight
VS
72%
Herman
28%
Natal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
EH
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27 – 16
6'1"77" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 39
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herman

Herman is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Herman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Natal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Herman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Herman
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"
Reach
77"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herman
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
15.2
47.4
Performance Avg
40.5
44
Quality of Victory
30
82
Momentum Score
81
Herman
Natal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
6
4
Body
2
9
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance7
11Clinch4
0Ground0
Herman
Natal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herman
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/43 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Herman
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Herman
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
22%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herman
Natal
Striking4.1 / 2.2Volume3.5 / 7.3Grappling3.8 / 2.8Wrestling2.7 / 1.9Submission3.9 / 1.1Pressure6.4 / 3.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Herman
Strike Zones
Natal
Herman
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY9LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Natal
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY9LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herman targets the head (46% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the head (55% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herman
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0

Herman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L1.5L5.0W5.2W5.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W1.8L5.2W4.0L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W6.4L4.4L2006-062009-042014-052019-112023-04
WinLossTrend

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Herman · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

News & Media

Ed Herman · Rafael Natal
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