METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Cincinnati, USA
10 May 2014
Middleweight
VS
72%
Herman
28%
Natal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ed HermanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rafael Natal · UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herman
→
Actual result
Herman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Herman is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Herman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Natal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Herman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HermanNatal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Herman
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"
Reach
77"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herman
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
15.2
47.4
Performance Avg
40.5
44
Quality of Victory
30
82
Momentum Score
81
Herman
Natal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
6
4
Body
2
9
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance7
11Clinch4
0Ground0
Herman
Natal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herman
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/43 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Herman
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Herman
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
22%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herman
Natal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
HermanNatal
Strike Zones
Herman
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedNatal
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herman targets the head (46% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the head (55% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herman
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0
Herman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Herman · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.4KO/TKO
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Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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