UFC 63: Hughes vs Penn
Anaheim, USA
23 Sept 2006
Lightweight
VS
94%
Guillard
6%
Ruediger
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guillard
Guillard is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Guillard has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Guillard has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ruediger has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guillard
Ruediger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
43+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guillard
Ruediger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
1.2
49.7
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
73
Momentum Score
0
Guillard
Ruediger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
17%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Guillard
Ruediger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guillard
Ruediger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
6
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
3/26 fights
Guillard
Ruediger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Guillard
Ruediger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guillard
Ruediger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GuillardRuediger
Strike Zones
Guillard
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedRuediger
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ruediger absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guillard
RND
Ruediger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Guillard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Ruediger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.4WinLossTrend
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross PearsonUFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
Ruediger · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Paul TaylorRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
L · Sub · R1
Joe LauzonRating 1.5Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
L · KO · R2
Melvin GuillardRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 63: Hughes vs Penn · 2006-09