UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
Seattle, USA
26 Mar 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Davis
43%
Nogueira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PD
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
17 – 4
6'2"79" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
Striker2-fight slide49 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Davis

This is a genuine toss-up — Davis at 57% vs Nogueira at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nogueira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Nogueira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Davis
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
75"
41+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Davis
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
14.4
50.2
Performance Avg
47.0
34
Quality of Victory
48
64
Momentum Score
20
Davis
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
34%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Davis
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
26
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/21 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Davis
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Davis
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Davis
Nogueira
Striking1.5 / 7.6Volume6.8 / 3.6Grappling4.3 / 0.8Wrestling3.0 / 0.6Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.6 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Davis
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Davis
Attacking
4HEAD5BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Nogueira
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD5BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the body (56% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Davis
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.9W5.5L2010-022010-112012-102014-042015-01
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Davis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Vinny MagalhaesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Phil Davis · Rogerio Nogueira
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