UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
Las Vegas, USA
28 Nov 2020
Welterweight
VS
55%
Baeza
45%
Sato
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Baeza
This is a genuine toss-up — Baeza at 55% vs Sato at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Baeza throws more volume but Sato connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Baeza's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sato has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Baeza
Sato
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
73"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Baeza
Sato
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.1
38.3
49.0
Performance Avg
45.9
53
Quality of Victory
58
39
Momentum Score
46
Baeza
Sato
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
10
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance7
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Baeza
Sato
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Baeza
Sato
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/23 fights
Baeza
Sato
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
46
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Baeza
Sato
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baeza
Sato
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
BaezaSato
Strike Zones
Baeza
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedSato
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baeza targets the head (50% of attacks) — Sato absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Sato targets the head (71% of attacks) — Baeza absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baeza
RND
Sato
0/0R00/0
Baeza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Sato · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Baeza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
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L · KO · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6Decision
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W · Sub · R2
Takashi SatoRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
Sato · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9Decision
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L · KO · R1
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L · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Sub · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
W · KO · R1
Jason WittRating 5KO/TKO
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