UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
18 May 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
48%
Rodriguez
52%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
Piera
Piera Rodriguez
"La Fiera"
12 – 2
5'3"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Ariane
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox61" reach5'2"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carnelossi

This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 48% vs Carnelossi at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"+
Height
5'2"
63"+
Reach
61"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.4
54.8
43.6
Performance Avg
47.1
25
Quality of Victory
45
85
Momentum Score
65
Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.7
49%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
4
5
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance3
9Clinch3
4Ground0
Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
65
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rodriguez
Carnelossi
Striking1.4 / 4.3Volume9.4 / 1.0Grappling2.4 / 2.7Wrestling1.7 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure2.1 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
2.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
9.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Rodriguez
Strike Zones
Carnelossi
Rodriguez
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Carnelossi
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (76% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (67% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rodriguez
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.2W4.0L5.7L5.0W4.9W5.2W2022-042023-042024-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Carnelossi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.6L5.2W5.5W6.0L5.0W5.2L2019-092021-042021-102022-052024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Sam HughesRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen SouzaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Josefine KnutssonRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · R2
Ariane CarnelossiRating 5.7
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Sub · R2
Gillian RobertsonRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Carnelossi · Last 5

Upcoming
Ketlen Souza
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezRating 5
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10

News & Media

Piera Rodriguez · Ariane Carnelossi
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