UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
New York City, USA
2 Nov 2019
Welterweight
VS
42%
Thompson
58%
Luque
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 42% vs Luque at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Luque has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Thompson
Luque
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
43
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thompson
Luque
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
64.9
48.9
Performance Avg
57.2
43
Quality of Victory
50
45
Momentum Score
100
Thompson
Luque
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.0
47%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
43
Head
7
11
Body
1
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
46Distance14
0Clinch0
9Ground0
Thompson
Luque
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.1
0
Submission wins
7
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thompson
Luque
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
34
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
25/36 fights
Thompson
Luque
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Thompson
Luque
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
82%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
7
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Luque
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
ThompsonLuque
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
55 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedLuque
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
55 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (78% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Luque targets the head (50% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Luque
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
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