UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
Seattle, USA
26 Mar 2011
Featherweight
VS
65%
Caceres
35%
Semerzier
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Caceres
Caceres holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Semerzier has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Semerzier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Caceres throws more volume but Semerzier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Caceres
Semerzier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
72"
37+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Semerzier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
21.0
42.2
Performance Avg
52.4
34
Quality of Victory
54
76
Momentum Score
59
Caceres
Semerzier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
60%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch1
0Ground6
Caceres
Semerzier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Semerzier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Caceres
Semerzier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
Caceres
Semerzier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Semerzier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
CaceresSemerzier
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedSemerzier
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (100% of attacks) — Semerzier absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Semerzier targets the head (78% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Semerzier
0/0R00/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Semerzier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Semerzier · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 2.4Submission
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03
Upcoming
Robert PeraltaUFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
W · Sub · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03