UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Tampa, USA
16 Apr 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
56%
Namajunas
44%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Namajunas
This is a genuine toss-up — Namajunas at 56% vs Pennington at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Namajunas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Namajunas's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Namajunas
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'1"
65"+
Reach
60"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Namajunas
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.2
49.8
55.9
Performance Avg
39.8
51
Quality of Victory
28
100
Momentum Score
89
Namajunas
Pennington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.9
41%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
4
Body
4
1
Leg
11
RangeRange
8Distance16
0Clinch2
1Ground1
Namajunas
Pennington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Namajunas
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Namajunas
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
89
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Namajunas
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
9%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Namajunas
Pennington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
NamajunasPennington
Strike Zones
Namajunas
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedPennington
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Namajunas targets the head (44% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the legs (58% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Namajunas
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0
Namajunas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Namajunas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04