UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Montreal, Canada
16 Mar 2013
Welterweight
VS
56%
Condit
44%
Hendricks
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32 – 14
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
JH
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'9"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Condit

This is a genuine toss-up — Condit at 56% vs Hendricks at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Condit throws more volume but Hendricks connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hendricks has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Condit
Hendricks
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Condit
Hendricks
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
17.8
47.8
Performance Avg
48.2
48
Quality of Victory
39
20
Momentum Score
80
Condit
Hendricks
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
3
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance2
1Clinch2
3Ground0
Condit
Hendricks
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Hendricks
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
24
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
21/26 fights
Condit
Hendricks
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Condit
Hendricks
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
39%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Condit
Hendricks
Striking5.4 / 5.1Volume4.5 / 6.2Grappling1.1 / 1.5Wrestling0.8 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Condit
Strike Zones
Hendricks
Condit
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY3LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Hendricks
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY3LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (57% of attacks) — Hendricks absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Hendricks targets the head (75% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Condit
RND
Hendricks
0/0R00/0

Condit · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.4W2.8L4.1W5.8L1.5L6.1L2.8L3.5L4.7W4.9W6.1L2009-042012-022015-052018-122021-07
WinLossTrend

Hendricks · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.8W5.8L4.9W2.1L5.8L6.1L4.5W2.8L3.8L2009-082011-082014-032017-022017-11
WinLossTrend

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

Hendricks · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Paulo CostaRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
L · KO · R2
Tim BoetschRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

News & Media

Carlos Condit · Johny Hendricks
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