UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2021
Lightweight
VS
69%
Ferreira
31%
Gillespie
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:51
Diego
Diego Ferreira
19 – 7
5'9"74" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 55
GG
Gregor Gillespie
"The Gift"
14 – 1
Knockout Artist39 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferreira

Ferreira holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Gillespie has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gillespie has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferreira's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferreira
Gillespie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
74"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferreira
Gillespie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
24.8
50.7
Performance Avg
65.3
45
Quality of Victory
51
87
Momentum Score
89
Ferreira
Gillespie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
58%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
32
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
1Clinch1
0Ground30
Ferreira
Gillespie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferreira
Gillespie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Ferreira
Gillespie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Ferreira
Gillespie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
86%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferreira
Gillespie
Striking6.2 / 7.5Volume3.6 / 2.9Grappling2.3 / 2.6Wrestling1.6 / 1.8Submission2.0 / 2.9Pressure6.7 / 8.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Ferreira
Strike Zones
Gillespie
Ferreira
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD3BODY0LEGS35 absorbed
Gillespie
Attacking
32HEAD3BODY0LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gillespie absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gillespie targets the head (91% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferreira
RND
Gillespie
0/0R00/0

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.2W6.5L2.8L4.5W5.4W5.3W4.5W4.5W5.2W6.5L2.8L3.8L5.3W6.1W7.0L3.6L2014-062018-022021-022025-012025-09
WinLossTrend

Gillespie · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.5W5.2W1.5L6.3W2016-092017-092018-062019-112021-05
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

Gillespie · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin LeeRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · KO · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · Sub · R2
Vinc PichelRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
W · KO · R1
Jordan RinaldiRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01

News & Media

Diego Ferreira · Gregor Gillespie
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