METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2021
Lightweight
VS
70%
Ferreira
30%
Gillespie
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:51
★ Official Result
Gregor GillespiewinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:51
def. Diego Ferreira · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferreira
→
Actual result
Gillespie wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Ferreira is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ferreira's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FerreiraGillespie
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferreira
Gillespie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
74"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferreira
Gillespie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.1
24.8
50.5
Performance Avg
65.3
44
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
89
Ferreira
Gillespie
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
7.5
/ 10
6.3
Style: Pressure
8.6
4.1
Style: Volume
2.9
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
32
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
1Clinch1
0Ground30
Ferreira
Gillespie
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferreira
Gillespie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Ferreira
Gillespie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
89
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Ferreira
Gillespie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
86%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferreira
Gillespie
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
FerreiraGillespie
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedGillespie
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gillespie absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gillespie targets the head (91% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferreira
RND
Gillespie
0/0R00/0
Ferreira · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloDecision
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonDecision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Gillespie · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin LeeKO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · KO · R2
Yancy MedeirosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · Sub · R2
Vinc PichelSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
W · KO · R1
Jordan RinaldiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01