UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Milwaukee, USA
14 Aug 2011
Lightweight
VS
31%
Cerrone
69%
Oliveira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:01
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
Oliveira holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Cerrone has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cerrone
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
73"
Reach
+74"
43
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
63.3
53.0
Performance Avg
58.6
47
Quality of Victory
51
63
Momentum Score
100
Cerrone
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
2
Body
3
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance10
1Clinch0
15Ground0
Cerrone
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Cerrone
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Cerrone
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
84%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
17
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
CerroneOliveira
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (73% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04