Rory MacDonald vs Demian Maia — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann

Las Vegas, USA

22 Feb 2014

Welterweight

47%

MacDonald

53%

Maia

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Rory MacDonald

"Red King"

19 – 4

6'0"76" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 18

Demian Maia

28 – 11

Well-Rounded2-fight slide48 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'1"

CFR 21

★ Official Result

Rory MacDonaldwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Demian Maia · UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Maia

→

Actual result

MacDonald wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — MacDonald at 47% vs Maia at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Maia has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MacDonaldMaia

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

MacDonald

Maia

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'0"

Height

+6'1"

76"+

Reach

72"

37+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

MacDonald

Maia

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

18.1

20.6

51.3

Performance Avg

50.8

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

MacDonald

Maia

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.7

/ 10

1.8

/ 10

5.2

Style: Pressure

5.8

Style: Volume

5.0

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

28Distance11

0Clinch0

1Ground0

MacDonald

Maia

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.2

/ 10

5.1

/ 10

1.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.6

1.1

Submission Style (/10)

5.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

MacDonald

Maia

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R4.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/23 fights

Chin rating based on

33/39 fights

MacDonald

Maia

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R5

L · KO · R5

W · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

MacDonald

Maia

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

44%

55%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

MacDonald

Maia

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.8

2.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

5.1

1.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.6

1.1

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.0

5.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.0

MacDonald

Strike Zones

Maia

MacDonald

Attacking

29 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Maia

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

29 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯MacDonald targets the head (83% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 83% of strikes there

🎯Maia targets the head (91% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

MacDonald

RND

Maia

0/0R00/0

MacDonald · Last 5

L · Dec · R5

Stephen Thompson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06

L · KO · R5

Robbie Lawler

KO/TKO

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07

W · KO · R3

Tarec Saffiedine

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

W · Dec · R3

Tyron Woodley

Decision

UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06

W · Dec · R3

Demian Maia

Decision

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Belal Muhammad

Decision

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06

L · KO · R1

Gilbert Burns

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03

W · Sub · R3

Ben Askren

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10

W · Dec · R3

Anthony Rocco Martin

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06

W · Sub · R1

Lyman Good

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

News & Media

Rory MacDonald · Demian Maia

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