UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
Las Vegas, USA
22 Feb 2014
Welterweight
VS
36%
MacDonald
64%
Maia
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RM
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19 – 4
6'0"76" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide48 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'1"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maia

Maia holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but MacDonald has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

MacDonald has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Maia has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

MacDonald
Maia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
76"+
Reach
72"
36+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
MacDonald
Maia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
32.4
51.3
Performance Avg
50.8
39
Quality of Victory
40
61
Momentum Score
100
MacDonald
Maia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
10
4
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
28Distance11
0Clinch0
1Ground0
MacDonald
Maia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.1
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
MacDonald
Maia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
33/39 fights
MacDonald
Maia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
MacDonald
Maia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
55%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
11
5
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

MacDonald
Maia
Striking4.7 / 1.8Volume5.8 / 5.0Grappling2.2 / 5.1Wrestling1.6 / 3.6Submission1.1 / 5.0Pressure5.2 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.1
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
MacDonald
Strike Zones
Maia
MacDonald
Attacking
24HEAD4BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Maia
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD4BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (83% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Maia targets the head (91% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

MacDonald
RND
Maia
0/0R00/0

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.8L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.3L6.1L2010-012012-042014-022016-06
WinLossTrend

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

News & Media

Rory MacDonald · Demian Maia
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