METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami
Saitama, Japan
22 Sept 2017
Welterweight
VS
28%
Nakamura
72%
Morono
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Keita NakamurawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alex Morono · UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Morono
→
Actual result
Nakamura wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Morono is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morono has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Morono has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NakamuraMorono
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nakamura
Morono
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
72"
42
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nakamura
Morono
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
35.0
36.2
Performance Avg
43.3
36
Quality of Victory
35
26
Momentum Score
20
Nakamura
Morono
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
2.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
3
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance14
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Nakamura
Morono
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nakamura
Morono
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
20
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Nakamura
Morono
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
20
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nakamura
Morono
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
31%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nakamura
Morono
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.5
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
NakamuraMorono
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedMorono
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nakamura targets the head (70% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Morono targets the head (87% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nakamura
RND
Morono
0/0R00/0
Nakamura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Morono · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Nakamura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
Morono · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniil DonchenkoRating 7.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
Carlos LealRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04