UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami
Saitama, Japan
22 Sept 2017
Welterweight
VS
28%
Nakamura
72%
Morono
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
34 – 10
5'11"73" reachSouthpaw42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Alex
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
24 – 13
Well-Rounded4-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Morono

Morono is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Morono has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Morono has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nakamura
Morono
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
72"
42
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nakamura
Morono
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
35.0
36.2
Performance Avg
43.3
36
Quality of Victory
35
26
Momentum Score
20
Nakamura
Morono
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
3
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance14
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Nakamura
Morono
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nakamura
Morono
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
20
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Nakamura
Morono
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
20
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nakamura
Morono
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
31%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nakamura
Morono
Striking0.7 / 2.7Volume4.7 / 6.7Grappling5.2 / 2.9Wrestling3.6 / 2.0Submission5.0 / 1.5Pressure4.6 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.5
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Nakamura
Strike Zones
Morono
Nakamura
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Morono
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nakamura targets the head (70% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Morono targets the head (87% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nakamura
RND
Morono
0/0R00/0

Nakamura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.3W5.5L5.2W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2006-122015-092016-102018-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Morono · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.9W5.0W5.1W2.9L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5L5.3W6.7L4.7W6.2L6.4L2.3L7.8L2016-012019-032021-092024-042026-02
WinLossTrend

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

Morono · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Daniil DonchenkoRating 7.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos LealRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04

News & Media

Keita Nakamura · Alex Morono
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