UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
Vancouver, Canada
11 Jun 2011
Featherweight
VS
84%
Elkins
16%
Omigawa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
MO
Michihiro Omigawa
17 – 14
Well-Rounded2-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 9

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Elkins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Striking split: Elkins throws more volume but Omigawa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elkins
Omigawa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
68"
42+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Omigawa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
8.7
46.3
Performance Avg
20.7
35
Quality of Victory
25
66
Momentum Score
20
Elkins
Omigawa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
38%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
18
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Elkins
Omigawa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Omigawa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
7/31 fights
Elkins
Omigawa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Elkins
Omigawa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Omigawa
Striking3.4 / 0.3Volume6.3 / 8.3Grappling2.8 / 2.4Wrestling1.9 / 1.7Submission1.6 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 0.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Elkins
Strike Zones
Omigawa
Elkins
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Omigawa
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (100% of attacks) — Omigawa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Omigawa targets the head (86% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Omigawa
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Omigawa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.0L4.5W5.5L5.5L2007-092011-022011-112012-08
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Omigawa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Manvel GamburyanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · Dec · R3
Iuri AlcantaraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01
W · Dec · R3
Jason YoungRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Chad MendesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02

News & Media

Darren Elkins · Michihiro Omigawa
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