UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
New Orleans, USA
6 Jun 2015
Featherweight
VS
22%
Tavares
78%
Ortega
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:10
TT
Thiago Tavares
21 – 7
5'7"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide35 yrsSwitch69" reach5'8"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortega

Ortega is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ortega throws more volume but Tavares connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tavares
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
41
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Tavares
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
62.1
48.8
Performance Avg
53.7
42
Quality of Victory
48
81
Momentum Score
80
Tavares
Ortega
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
44%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
29
1
Body
1
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance20
1Clinch2
0Ground9
Tavares
Ortega
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
14/21 fights
Tavares
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Tavares
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
4
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tavares
Ortega
Striking2.2 / 5.0Volume4.4 / 2.2Grappling5.0 / 4.3Wrestling3.5 / 3.0Submission5.0 / 5.0Pressure6.0 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Tavares
Strike Zones
Ortega
Tavares
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY4LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD1BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Ortega
Attacking
29HEAD1BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY4LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ortega targets the head (94% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 94% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tavares
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.4L5.5W3.3L2007-042008-092012-012015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Tavares · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

News & Media

Thiago Tavares · Brian Ortega
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