UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Welterweight
VS
79%
Cummings
21%
Coy
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:21
ZC
Zak Cummings
25 – 7
6'0"75" reachSouthpaw41 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 43
NC
Nathan Coy
"Soulforce"
15 – 7
Well-Rounded47 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'10"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cummings

Cummings is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cummings has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Coy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Cummings
Coy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
69"
41+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Cummings
Coy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
11.3
53.3
Performance Avg
28.3
41
Quality of Victory
25
63
Momentum Score
40
Cummings
Coy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.5
39%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
13
2
Body
7
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
21Distance22
2Clinch1
2Ground0
Cummings
Coy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cummings
Coy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Cummings
Coy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
40
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Cummings
Coy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cummings
Coy
Striking3.4 / 0.7Volume4.6 / 8.7Grappling4.2 / 2.4Wrestling2.9 / 1.7Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Cummings
Strike Zones
Coy
Cummings
Attacking
20HEAD2BODY3LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD7BODY3LEGS23 absorbed
Coy
Attacking
13HEAD7BODY3LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD2BODY3LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cummings targets the head (80% of attacks) — Coy absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Coy targets the head (57% of attacks) — Cummings absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cummings
RND
Coy
0/0R00/0

Cummings · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.5W3.8L5.0W4.8W6.0L5.2W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.7W5.5L4.5W5.7W2013-082016-042018-052020-082023-04
WinLossTrend

Coy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.6
0101.5L4.5W1.9L2015-122016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Cummings · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Ed HermanRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12

Coy · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Zak CummingsRating 1.9
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Jonavin WebbRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
L · Sub · R1
Danny RobertsRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12

News & Media

Zak Cummings · Nathan Coy
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