UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
London, United Kingdom
22 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
41%
Herbert
59%
Padilla
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jai
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14 – 6
6'1"77" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Chris
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
17 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 71

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Padilla

This is a genuine toss-up — Herbert at 41% vs Padilla at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Padilla has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Herbert's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Herbert
Padilla
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
77"+
Reach
74"
38
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herbert
Padilla
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.6
70.9
43.3
Performance Avg
64.2
43
Quality of Victory
40
74
Momentum Score
100
Herbert
Padilla
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
3.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
11
9
Body
2
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
27Distance15
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Herbert
Padilla
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herbert
Padilla
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
5/23 fights
Herbert
Padilla
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Herbert
Padilla
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herbert
Padilla
Striking5.9 / 4.5Volume4.9 / 4.0Grappling1.2 / 2.6Wrestling0.8 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure4.8 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Herbert
Strike Zones
Padilla
Herbert
Attacking
15HEAD9BODY4LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY4LEGS17 absorbed
Padilla
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY4LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD9BODY4LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herbert targets the head (54% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Padilla targets the head (65% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 65% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herbert
RND
Padilla
0/0R00/0

Herbert · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.0L3.5L5.0W5.1L4.6W6.7L4.5W7.3L5.0W2020-072022-032024-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Padilla · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W4.7W5.2W5.6W2024-042024-092025-032025-11
WinLossTrend

Herbert · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Upcoming
Ludovit Klein
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Padilla · Last 5

Upcoming
MarQuel Mederos
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Ismael BonfimRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jai HerbertRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
RongzhuRating 4.7
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
James LlontopRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

News & Media

Jai Herbert · Chris Padilla
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