METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
London, United Kingdom
22 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
41%
Herbert
59%
Padilla
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Chris PadillawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jai Herbert · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Padilla
→
Actual result
Padilla wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Herbert at 41% vs Padilla at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Herbert's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HerbertPadilla
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Herbert
Padilla
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
77"+
Reach
74"
38
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herbert
Padilla
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.6
72.0
43.3
Performance Avg
64.8
43
Quality of Victory
41
74
Momentum Score
100
Herbert
Padilla
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
7.2
4.9
Style: Volume
3.6
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
11
9
Body
2
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
27Distance15
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Herbert
Padilla
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herbert
Padilla
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/23 fights
Herbert
Padilla
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Herbert
Padilla
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herbert
Padilla
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
HerbertPadilla
Strike Zones
Herbert
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedPadilla
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herbert targets the head (54% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Padilla targets the head (65% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herbert
RND
Padilla
0/0R00/0
Herbert · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Upcoming
Ludovit KleinDecision
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Padilla · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Nasrat HaqparastSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08
Upcoming
MarQuel MederosDecision
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W · KO · R2
Ismael BonfimKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jai HerbertDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
RongzhuUFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09