UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Portland, USA
29 Aug 2009
Heavyweight
VS
49%
Nogueira
51%
Couture
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34 – 10
6'3"77" reachOrthodox49 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RC
Randy Couture
"The Natural"
19 – 11
Well-Rounded62 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'1"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Couture

This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 49% vs Couture at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Couture connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Couture has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nogueira
Couture
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
75"
49+
Age
62
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Couture
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
20.6
49.3
Performance Avg
62.4
52
Quality of Victory
60
91
Momentum Score
72
Nogueira
Couture
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
61%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground4
Nogueira
Couture
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Couture
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Nogueira
Couture
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
72
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nogueira
Couture
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
63%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira
Couture
Striking2.9 / 5.1Volume4.1 / 3.8Grappling4.2 / 2.8Wrestling2.9 / 1.9Submission4.0 / 2.5Pressure5.6 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Nogueira
Strike Zones
Couture
Nogueira
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Couture
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Couture absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Couture targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira
RND
Couture
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0104.5W5.2W2.1L4.5W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W2.1L1.5L5.5L2007-072009-082011-122014-042015-08
WinLossTrend

Couture · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.2W2.1L4.0L5.2W4.5W4.0L4.2W1.5L5.5W2.1L4.5W5.2W2.1L5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W2.8L1997-052001-112004-082008-112011-04
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R2
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
W · Sub · R2
Dave HermanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12

Couture · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Lyoto MachidaRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
W · Sub · R1
James ToneyRating 5
Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Mark ColemanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
W · Dec · R3
Brandon VeraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08

News & Media

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira · Randy Couture
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