UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Matsumoto
55%
Basharat
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jean
Jean Matsumoto
17 – 2
5'6"68" reachOrthodox26 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Farid
Farid Basharat
"Ferocious"
15 – 0
Well-Rounded6-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Basharat

This is a genuine toss-up — Matsumoto at 45% vs Basharat at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Matsumoto throws more volume but Basharat connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Matsumoto
Basharat
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
+71"
26+
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matsumoto
Basharat
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.4
64.0
43.9
Performance Avg
57.9
33
Quality of Victory
30
75
Momentum Score
100
Matsumoto
Basharat
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
25
12
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
32Distance25
5Clinch4
0Ground0
Matsumoto
Basharat
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matsumoto
Basharat
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/19 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Matsumoto
Basharat
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
100
Current form
6-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Matsumoto
Basharat
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
17%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matsumoto
Basharat
Striking1.2 / 2.0Volume6.5 / 8.7Grappling4.3 / 3.3Wrestling3.0 / 2.3Submission3.3 / 1.7Pressure4.1 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Matsumoto
Strike Zones
Basharat
Matsumoto
Attacking
21HEAD12BODY4LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD4BODY0LEGS29 absorbed
Basharat
Attacking
25HEAD4BODY0LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD12BODY4LEGS37 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Matsumoto targets the head (57% of attacks) — Basharat absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Basharat targets the head (86% of attacks) — Matsumoto absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matsumoto
RND
Basharat
0/0R00/0

Matsumoto · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W4.9W6.7L4.5W7.0L2024-042024-102025-022025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Basharat · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5W5.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.4W2023-032023-092024-012024-102025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Matsumoto · Last 5

Upcoming
Bekzat Almakhan
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

Basharat · Last 5

Upcoming
Ethyn Ewing
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Jean MatsumotoRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 5
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor HugoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

News & Media

Jean Matsumoto · Farid Basharat
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