METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Bantamweight
VS
46%
Matsumoto
54%
Basharat
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Farid BasharatwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jean Matsumoto · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Basharat
→
Actual result
Basharat wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Matsumoto at 46% vs Basharat at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MatsumotoBasharat
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matsumoto
Basharat
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
+71"
27+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matsumoto
Basharat
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
63.5
45.3
Performance Avg
57.5
31
Quality of Victory
29
88
Momentum Score
100
Matsumoto
Basharat
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
3.8
Style: Pressure
4.0
7.3
Style: Volume
8.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
25
12
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
32Distance25
5Clinch4
0Ground0
Matsumoto
Basharat
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matsumoto
Basharat
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/19 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Matsumoto
Basharat
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
100
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Matsumoto
Basharat
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
14%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matsumoto
Basharat
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
MatsumotoBasharat
Strike Zones
Matsumoto
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedBasharat
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matsumoto targets the head (57% of attacks) — Basharat absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Basharat targets the head (86% of attacks) — Matsumoto absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matsumoto
RND
Basharat
0/0R00/0
Matsumoto · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Bekzat AlmakhanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatDecision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
Basharat · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
John GarzaDecision
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Jean MatsumotoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezDecision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor HugoDecision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01