UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Saint Petersburg, Russia
20 Apr 2019
Heavyweight
VS
77%
Pavlovich
23%
Golm
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pavlovich
Pavlovich is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Golm connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pavlovich
Golm
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
84"+
Reach
75"
34
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pavlovich
Golm
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.8
17.6
60.6
Performance Avg
42.4
53
Quality of Victory
54
59
Momentum Score
43
Pavlovich
Golm
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
58%
8.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance4
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Pavlovich
Golm
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pavlovich
Golm
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/9 fights
Pavlovich
Golm
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Pavlovich
Golm
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pavlovich
Golm
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
PavlovichGolm
Strike Zones
Pavlovich
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedGolm
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (100% of attacks) — Golm absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Golm targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pavlovich
RND
Golm
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Golm · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
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L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
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Golm · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · Dec · R3
Arjan BhullarRating 5.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Timothy JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Christian ColomboRating 5Submission
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