UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Las Vegas, USA
5 Nov 2022
Bantamweight
VS
72%
Bautista
28%
Lopez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bautista
Bautista is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bautista has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bautista
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+73"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Switch
Bautista
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
22.0
54.6
Performance Avg
35.0
39
Quality of Victory
25
73
Momentum Score
61
Bautista
Lopez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
48%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
6
12
Body
2
12
Leg
9
RangeRange
32Distance13
0Clinch0
12Ground4
Bautista
Lopez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
76
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Bautista
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
61
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Bautista
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bautista
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
BautistaLopez
Strike Zones
Bautista
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedLopez
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (45% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bautista
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
Bautista · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lopez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Bautista · Last 5
Upcoming
Cory SandhagenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Lopez · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Sub · R1
Manny BermudezRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Albert MoralesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12