METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Las Vegas, USA
5 Nov 2022
Bantamweight
VS
72%
Bautista
28%
Lopez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:54
★ Official Result
Mario BautistawinsSubmissionR1 · 4:54
def. Benito Lopez · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bautista
→
Actual result
Bautista wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Bautista is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bautista has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BautistaLopez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bautista
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+73"
33
Age
+32
Switch
Stance
Switch
Bautista
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
22.0
54.5
Performance Avg
35.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
73
Momentum Score
61
Bautista
Lopez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
1.5
6.3
Style: Volume
9.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
6
12
Body
2
12
Leg
9
RangeRange
32Distance13
0Clinch0
12Ground4
Bautista
Lopez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
76
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Bautista
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
61
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Bautista
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bautista
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
BautistaLopez
Strike Zones
Bautista
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedLopez
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (45% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bautista
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
Bautista · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenDecision
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Lopez · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Sub · R1
Manny BermudezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Albert MoralesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12