UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Salt Lake City, USA
20 Aug 2022
Bantamweight
VS
42%
Aldo
58%
Dvalishvili
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jose
Jose Aldo
32 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Merab
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
21 – 5
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dvalishvili

This is a genuine toss-up — Aldo at 42% vs Dvalishvili at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aldo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Dvalishvili throws more volume but Aldo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Aldo
Dvalishvili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
68"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldo
Dvalishvili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
60.4
53.6
Performance Avg
53.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
40
Momentum Score
100
Aldo
Dvalishvili
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
48%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
6
Body
5
1
Leg
12
RangeRange
11Distance19
1Clinch11
0Ground0
Aldo
Dvalishvili
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Dvalishvili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
84
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Aldo
Dvalishvili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Aldo
Dvalishvili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
14%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldo
Dvalishvili
Striking4.1 / 2.4Volume6.9 / 8.5Grappling1.7 / 2.6Wrestling1.2 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 0.7Pressure3.8 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Aldo
Strike Zones
Dvalishvili
Aldo
Attacking
5HEAD6BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD5BODY12LEGS30 absorbed
Dvalishvili
Attacking
13HEAD5BODY12LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD6BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the body (50% of attacks) — Dvalishvili absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Dvalishvili targets the head (43% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldo
RND
Dvalishvili
0/0R00/0

Aldo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.9W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W3.8L3.8L5.5W6.0W7.0L5.5L5.5L5.3W5.0W5.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L6.6L2011-042014-102019-022021-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Dvalishvili · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L4.7L4.5W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W6.0W6.0W6.0W5.8W6.8W6.0W7.0L2017-122020-062023-032025-102025-12
WinLossTrend

Aldo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12

Dvalishvili · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Umar NurmagomedovRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 6
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Jose Aldo · Merab Dvalishvili
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