UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka
Dublin, Ireland
24 Oct 2015
Welterweight
VS
50%
Pendred
50%
Breese
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:37
CP
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
17 – 4
6'1"75" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
TB
Tom Breese
12 – 3
Knockout Artist34 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pendred

This is a genuine toss-up — Pendred at 50% vs Breese at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Breese has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pendred
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
75"+
Reach
73"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pendred
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
19.7
45.3
Performance Avg
56.8
31
Quality of Victory
53
99
Momentum Score
46
Pendred
Breese
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
20
2
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance22
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Pendred
Breese
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pendred
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/21 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Pendred
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Pendred
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pendred
Breese
Striking1.3 / 9.3Volume7.3 / 2.9Grappling3.8 / 0.5Wrestling2.7 / 0.3Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Pendred
Strike Zones
Breese
Pendred
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD3BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Breese
Attacking
20HEAD3BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pendred targets the head (40% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Breese targets the head (87% of attacks) — Pendred absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pendred
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Pendred · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L2014-072014-102015-012015-062015-072015-10
WinLossTrend

Breese · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W4.5W6.6L5.0W2.8L5.0W2.8L2015-052016-022018-052020-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Pendred · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
John HowardRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Augusto MontanoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10

Breese · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06

News & Media

Cathal Pendred · Tom Breese
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