UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Seattle, USA
8 Dec 2012
Welterweight
VS
55%
Penn
45%
MacDonald
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BP
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16 – 14
5'9"70" reachOrthodox47 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
RM
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'0"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Penn

This is a genuine toss-up — Penn at 55% vs MacDonald at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Penn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Striking split: MacDonald throws more volume but Penn connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

MacDonald has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Penn
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penn
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
18.1
56.9
Performance Avg
51.3
63
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
61
Penn
MacDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
19
2
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance24
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Penn
MacDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Penn
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
13/23 fights
Penn
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Penn
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
44%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Penn
MacDonald
Striking6.0 / 4.7Volume1.6 / 5.8Grappling2.9 / 2.2Wrestling2.0 / 1.6Submission3.3 / 1.1Pressure7.3 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Penn
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Penn
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD6BODY1LEGS26 absorbed
MacDonald
Attacking
19HEAD6BODY1LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the head (75% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (73% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Penn
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0

Penn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W3.4L5.4W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2.8L3.7L5.5L1.5L6.0L2001-052006-032009-122017-012019-05
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.8L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.3L6.1L2010-012012-042014-022016-06
WinLossTrend

Penn · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

MacDonald · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02

News & Media

BJ Penn · Rory MacDonald
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