UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Bantamweight
VS
93%
Talbott
7%
Aguirre
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:58
Payton
Payton Talbott
11 – 1
5'10"70" reachSwitch27 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 66
NA
Nick Aguirre
"Slick"
7 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide30 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'9"
CFR 5

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Talbott

Talbott is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 60 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Talbott has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.

Talbott has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Talbott
Aguirre
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
27+
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Talbott
Aguirre
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
5.2
58.5
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
86
Momentum Score
0
Talbott
Aguirre
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
0.2
63%
Strike Accuracy
19%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
3
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance1
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Talbott
Aguirre
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Talbott
Aguirre
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/12 fights
Chin rating based on
2/9 fights
Talbott
Aguirre
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Talbott
Aguirre
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Talbott
Aguirre
Striking5.7 / 0.0Volume4.9 / 0.0Grappling2.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Talbott
Strike Zones
Aguirre
Talbott
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Aguirre
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Talbott targets the head (67% of attacks) — Aguirre absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Aguirre targets the head (100% of attacks) — Talbott absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Talbott
RND
Aguirre
0/0R00/0

Talbott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W6.2W5.0W6.3L5.5W6.0W2023-112024-032024-062025-012025-062025-12
WinLossTrend

Aguirre · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5L2023-012023-11
WinLossTrend

Talbott · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 6
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Felipe LimaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R1
Yanis GhemmouriRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Cameron SaaimanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

Aguirre · Last 2

L · Sub · R3
Payton TalbottRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan ArguetaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01

News & Media

Payton Talbott · Nick Aguirre
← Back to fights