UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Las Vegas, USA
15 Feb 2025
Flyweight
VS
47%
Estevam
53%
Aguilar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rafael
Rafael Estevam
"Macapa"
14 – 1
5'8"69" reachOrthodox29 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
Jesus
Jesus Aguilar
12 – 4
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'4"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aguilar

This is a genuine toss-up — Estevam at 47% vs Aguilar at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Striking split: Aguilar throws more volume but Estevam connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Estevam
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'4"
69"+
Reach
62"
29+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Estevam
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.8
52.3
45.0
Performance Avg
47.5
25
Quality of Victory
41
67
Momentum Score
60
Estevam
Aguilar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
35%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
21
4
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
8Distance27
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Estevam
Aguilar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Estevam
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/15 fights
Chin rating based on
8/16 fights
Estevam
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
67
60
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Estevam
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Estevam
Aguilar
Striking1.5 / 3.6Volume9.5 / 5.1Grappling2.4 / 3.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure2.3 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
9.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Estevam
Strike Zones
Aguilar
Estevam
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY4LEGS28 absorbed
Aguilar
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY4LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Estevam targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the head (75% of attacks) — Estevam absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Estevam
RND
Aguilar
0/0R00/0

Estevam · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.4W5.4W5.1W5.7L2023-112025-022025-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.2L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1L4.5W6.1L2023-022024-022025-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Estevam · Last 4

L · KO · R3
Ethyn EwingRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Felipe BunesRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming
Rei Tsuruya
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Rafael Estevam · Jesus Aguilar
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