UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Anaheim, USA
17 Feb 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
49%
Lemos
51%
Dern
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Amanda
Amanda Lemos
15 – 6
5'4"65" reachSouthpaw39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak33 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

This is a genuine toss-up — Lemos at 49% vs Dern at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Dern throws more volume but Lemos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lemos's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lemos
Dern
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
65"+
Reach
63"
39
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lemos
Dern
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
59.6
49.6
Performance Avg
51.1
43
Quality of Victory
39
85
Momentum Score
94
Lemos
Dern
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
5Ground4
Lemos
Dern
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lemos
Dern
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
16/21 fights
Lemos
Dern
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
94
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Lemos
Dern
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
46%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lemos
Dern
Striking4.5 / 1.4Volume4.8 / 5.7Grappling2.8 / 5.0Wrestling2.0 / 3.5Submission2.2 / 4.5Pressure5.7 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.5
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Lemos
Strike Zones
Dern
Lemos
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Dern
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lemos targets the head (83% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Dern targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lemos absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lemos
RND
Dern
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lemos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0102.8L5.0W5.3W5.0W5.0W4.6W2.3L5.2W5.9W7.3L5.7W2.8L5.4W7.4L6.7L2017-072021-072022-112025-032026-03
WinLossTrend

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Lemos · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R2
Virna JandirobaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Amanda Lemos · Mackenzie Dern
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