UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Perth, Australia
2 May 2026
Heavyweight
VS
60%
Tuivasa
40%
Sutherland
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tuivasa
Tuivasa holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Sutherland has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tuivasa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Striking split: Tuivasa throws more volume but Sutherland connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tuivasa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sutherland has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+76"
33
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.2
28.7
50.4
Performance Avg
28.3
54
Quality of Victory
25
20
Momentum Score
27
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.8
55%
Strike Accuracy
59%
9.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
3Ground2
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.8
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/25 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
27
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tuivasa
Sutherland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
TuivasaSutherland
Strike Zones
Tuivasa
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSutherland
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tuivasa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sutherland absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Sutherland targets the head (60% of attacks) — Tuivasa absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tuivasa
RND
Sutherland
0/0R00/0
Tuivasa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Sutherland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Tuivasa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Louie SutherlandRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.7Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Sub · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Sutherland · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Brando PericicRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4Submission
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10