UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Toronto, Canada
22 Sept 2012
Bantamweight
VS
49%
Gagnon
51%
Watson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:09
MG
Mitch Gagnon
12 – 5
5'5"65" reachSouthpaw41 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 17
WW
Walel Watson
"The Gazelle"
14 – 10
Knockout Artist3-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Watson

This is a genuine toss-up — Gagnon at 49% vs Watson at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Watson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Watson throws more volume but Gagnon connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Gagnon
Watson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'11"
65"
Reach
+75"
41
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gagnon
Watson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
18.3
48.0
Performance Avg
46.0
47
Quality of Victory
60
38
Momentum Score
36
Gagnon
Watson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
33%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Gagnon
Watson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
6.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gagnon
Watson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/24 fights
Gagnon
Watson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
36
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Gagnon
Watson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gagnon
Watson
Striking1.0 / 10.0Volume3.0 / 0.5Grappling6.6 / 0.0Wrestling4.6 / 0.0Submission7.5 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Gagnon
Strike Zones
Watson
Gagnon
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Watson
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gagnon targets the head (100% of attacks) — Watson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Watson targets the body (100% of attacks) — Gagnon absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gagnon
RND
Watson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gagnon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.0L5.5L5.5L2012-072013-092014-102016-122019-05
WinLossTrend

Watson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.5L5.6L1.5L2011-102011-122012-022012-09
WinLossTrend

Gagnon · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cole SmithRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Matthew LopezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Renan BaraoRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
W · Sub · R1
Roman SalazarRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tim GormanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04

Watson · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Mitch GagnonRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · Dec · R3
TJ DillashawRating 5.6
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
L · Dec · R3
Yves JabouinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
W · KO · R1
Joseph SandovalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10

News & Media

Mitch Gagnon · Walel Watson
← Back to fights