UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 May 2019
Welterweight
VS
67%
Alves
33%
Moraes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:13
Warlley
Warlley Alves
15 – 8
5'11"72" reachOrthodox35 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 39
SM
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'0"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alves

Alves holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Moraes has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moraes has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alves
Moraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
72"
35+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Moraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
19.0
49.3
Performance Avg
47.0
49
Quality of Victory
37
30
Momentum Score
95
Alves
Moraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
4
7
Body
2
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
36Distance6
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Alves
Moraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Moraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
14/20 fights
Alves
Moraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
95
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Moraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Moraes
Striking3.5 / 2.5Volume3.0 / 5.2Grappling3.6 / 4.2Wrestling2.5 / 2.9Submission3.8 / 3.8Pressure5.9 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
Alves
Strike Zones
Moraes
Alves
Attacking
24HEAD7BODY7LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Moraes
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD7BODY7LEGS38 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (63% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Moraes targets the head (67% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Moraes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W5.2W6.3W5.9L6.6L4.5W4.2W2.8L5.5W3.6L5.0W4.1L5.8L3.2L6.3L2014-052016-052018-082021-062024-05
WinLossTrend

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W2.6L4.6W5.2W5.5L4.2L4.0L2012-062015-122018-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R3
James KrauseRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

News & Media

Warlley Alves · Sergio Moraes
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