UFC 79: Nemesis
Las Vegas, USA
29 Dec 2007
Light Heavyweight
VS
44%
Irvin
56%
Cane
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cane
This is a genuine toss-up — Irvin at 44% vs Cane at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Cane throws more volume but Irvin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Irvin's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cane has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Irvin
Cane
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
+77"
47
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Irvin
Cane
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
18.2
46.0
Performance Avg
47.8
50
Quality of Victory
50
26
Momentum Score
65
Irvin
Cane
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
3.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
46%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
1
Body
2
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Irvin
Cane
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Irvin
Cane
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/24 fights
Irvin
Cane
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
65
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Irvin
Cane
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Irvin
Cane
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
IrvinCane
Strike Zones
Irvin
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCane
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Irvin targets the head (40% of attacks) — Cane absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Cane targets the head (67% of attacks) — Irvin absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Irvin
RND
Cane
0/0R00/0
Irvin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Cane · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Irvin · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Igor PokrajacRating 1.5Submission
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
L · KO · R1
Alessio SakaraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · KO · R1
Anderson SilvaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
W · KO · R1
Houston AlexanderRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
W · R1
Luiz CaneRating 4UFC 79: Nemesis · 2007-12
Cane · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Stanislav NedkovRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
W · KO · R1
Eliot MarshallRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Cyrille DiabateRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Rogerio NogueiraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11