UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Heavyweight
VS
87%
Lewis
13%
Pesta
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lewis
Lewis is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lewis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Lewis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pesta has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lewis
Pesta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
77"
41
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lewis
Pesta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.2
8.6
57.5
Performance Avg
23.0
53
Quality of Victory
25
84
Momentum Score
30
Lewis
Pesta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.4
56%
Strike Accuracy
40%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
16 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Lewis
Pesta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lewis
Pesta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
8
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
5/14 fights
Lewis
Pesta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
30
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Lewis
Pesta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
16
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lewis
Pesta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
LewisPesta
Strike Zones
Lewis
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedPesta
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lewis targets the head (93% of attacks) — Pesta absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lewis
RND
Pesta
0/0R00/0
Lewis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Pesta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Lewis · Last 5
Upcoming
Josh HokitUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Pesta · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Ruslan MagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05