UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Stirling
43%
Tokkos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Navajo
Navajo Stirling
9 – 0
6'4"79" reachOrthodox28 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Tuco
Tuco Tokkos
11 – 6
Submission Hunter35 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'4"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stirling

This is a genuine toss-up — Stirling at 57% vs Tokkos at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tokkos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Stirling has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Stirling
Tokkos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
79"+
Reach
76"
28+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stirling
Tokkos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
49.2
59.5
Performance Avg
39.7
33
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
43
Stirling
Tokkos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.6
56%
Strike Accuracy
39%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
7
16
Body
1
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
33Distance11
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Stirling
Tokkos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Stirling
Tokkos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Stirling
Tokkos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Stirling
Tokkos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stirling
Tokkos
Striking4.5 / 0.5Volume8.0 / 0.5Grappling1.8 / 8.0Wrestling1.3 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure4.8 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Stirling
Strike Zones
Tokkos
Stirling
Attacking
17HEAD16BODY2LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY4LEGS12 absorbed
Tokkos
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY4LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD16BODY2LEGS35 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stirling targets the head (49% of attacks) — Tokkos absorbs 49% of strikes there
🎯Tokkos targets the head (58% of attacks) — Stirling absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stirling
RND
Tokkos
0/0R00/0

Stirling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W4.5W6.2W5.2W2024-122025-052025-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Tokkos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0102.5L7.0L6.1W5.5L2024-052024-122025-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Stirling · Last 5

Upcoming
Ion Cutelaba
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Bruno LopesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodolfo BellatoRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

Tokkos · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R1
Oumar SyRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Navajo Stirling · Tuco Tokkos
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