UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2023
Middleweight
VS
74%
Nickal
26%
Pickett
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nickal
Nickal is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nickal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Pickett throws more volume but Nickal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pickett has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nickal
Pickett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
76"
Reach
+80"
30+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nickal
Pickett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.4
24.1
62.0
Performance Avg
23.9
48
Quality of Victory
25
89
Momentum Score
45
Nickal
Pickett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.9
56%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Nickal
Pickett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nickal
Pickett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
26
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/9 fights
Chin rating based on
9/24 fights
Nickal
Pickett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
45
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Nickal
Pickett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nickal
Pickett
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.7
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
NickalPickett
Strike Zones
Nickal
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedPickett
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nickal targets the body (100% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pickett targets the body (100% of attacks) — Nickal absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nickal
RND
Pickett
0/0R00/0
Nickal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Nickal · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · KO · R3
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L · KO · R2
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Paul CraigRating 5.2Decision
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W · Sub · R2
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Pickett · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Josh FremdRating 5.5Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Bo NickalRating 3.2Submission
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L · KO · R2
Denis TiuliulinRating 2.8KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
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