UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Las Vegas, USA
23 Apr 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
76%
Esparza
24%
Lima
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Esparza
Esparza is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Esparza throws more volume but Lima connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Esparza
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+65"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
12.7
45.9
Performance Avg
35.6
35
Quality of Victory
31
60
Momentum Score
35
Esparza
Lima
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.8
40%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
9
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
13Ground7
Esparza
Lima
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
82
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Esparza
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Esparza
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Lima
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
EsparzaLima
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedLima
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the body (56% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (63% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
Esparza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Lima · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Randa MarkosRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Sub · R2
Tecia PenningtonRating 3.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 5.8Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Ericka AlmeidaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · 2015-05