METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Las Vegas, USA
23 Apr 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
77%
Esparza
23%
Lima
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Carla EsparzawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Juliana Lima · UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Esparza
→
Actual result
Esparza wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Esparza is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaLima
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+65"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
11.9
45.9
Performance Avg
32.6
35
Quality of Victory
26
60
Momentum Score
35
Esparza
Lima
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
1.3
7.7
Style: Volume
8.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
9
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
13Ground7
Esparza
Lima
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
82
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Esparza
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Esparza
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Lima
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
EsparzaLima
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedLima
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the body (56% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (63% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
Esparza · Last 5
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L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Ericka AlmeidaDecision
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