UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Petrino
52%
Asplund
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Vitor
Vitor Petrino
14 – 2
6'2"77" reachOrthodox28 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Steven
Steven Asplund
"Concrete"
7 – 2
Knockout Artist27 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'5"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Asplund

This is a genuine toss-up — Petrino at 48% vs Asplund at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Asplund has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Asplund has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Petrino's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Petrino
Asplund
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
+78"
28
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Petrino
Asplund
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
63.7
55.0
Performance Avg
53.0
40
Quality of Victory
55
71
Momentum Score
71
Petrino
Asplund
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
5.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
58%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
22
13
Body
0
6
Leg
5
RangeRange
39Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Petrino
Asplund
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Petrino
Asplund
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/16 fights
Chin rating based on
2/9 fights
Petrino
Asplund
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
71
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Petrino
Asplund
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Petrino
Asplund
Striking4.4 / 10.0Volume5.0 / 1.0Grappling3.3 / 0.0Wrestling2.3 / 0.0Submission2.9 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Petrino
Strike Zones
Asplund
Petrino
Attacking
20HEAD13BODY6LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD0BODY5LEGS27 absorbed
Asplund
Attacking
22HEAD0BODY5LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD13BODY6LEGS39 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Petrino targets the head (51% of attacks) — Asplund absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Asplund targets the head (81% of attacks) — Petrino absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Petrino
RND
Asplund
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Petrino · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.9W6.1W5.5W2.7L5.4L5.0W5.5W5.9W2023-032024-032025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Asplund · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.2W6.6L2025-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Petrino · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Steven AsplundRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Sub · R1
Austen LaneRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Dustin JacobyRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7
Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

Asplund · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Sean SharafRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

News & Media

Vitor Petrino · Steven Asplund
← Back to fights