UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Mexico City, Mexico
5 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
58%
Alvey
42%
Nicholson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SA
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33 – 18
6'2"75" reachSouthpaw40 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 23
AN
Alex Nicholson
"The Spartan"
7 – 4
Knockout Artist2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'4"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvey

This is a genuine toss-up — Alvey at 58% vs Nicholson at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nicholson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Nicholson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alvey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nicholson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alvey
Nicholson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+77"
40
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Alvey
Nicholson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.9
16.7
44.3
Performance Avg
46.0
45
Quality of Victory
60
43
Momentum Score
22
Alvey
Nicholson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
19
4
Body
4
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
22Distance25
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Alvey
Nicholson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvey
Nicholson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/51 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Alvey
Nicholson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
22
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Alvey
Nicholson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alvey
Nicholson
Striking5.9 / 10.0Volume4.1 / 0.5Grappling1.8 / 0.0Wrestling1.2 / 0.0Submission1.0 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Alvey
Strike Zones
Nicholson
Alvey
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY6LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD4BODY2LEGS25 absorbed
Nicholson
Attacking
19HEAD4BODY2LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY6LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alvey targets the head (55% of attacks) — Nicholson absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Nicholson targets the head (76% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alvey
RND
Nicholson
0/0R00/0

Alvey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W1.8L5.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.4W4.5W2.8L3.0L5.5L5.9L3.3L5.5L4.1L2.5L2014-082016-072017-102020-052022-08
WinLossTrend

Nicholson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0102.8L5.0W5.5L2.4L2016-022016-072016-112017-05
WinLossTrend

Alvey · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon Jung
Decision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10

Nicholson · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Devin ClarkRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Sub · R2
Misha CirkunovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02

News & Media

Sam Alvey · Alex Nicholson
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