UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Las Vegas, USA
11 Mar 2023
Bantamweight
VS
62%
Bautista
38%
Cannetti
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:18
Mario
Mario Bautista
17 – 3
5'9"69" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
GC
Guido Cannetti
"Ninja"
10 – 8
Well-Rounded46 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'6"
CFR 34

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bautista

Bautista holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Cannetti has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cannetti has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bautista
Cannetti
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
68"
32+
Age
46
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bautista
Cannetti
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
34.3
54.6
Performance Avg
40.6
39
Quality of Victory
41
73
Momentum Score
68
Bautista
Cannetti
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Bautista
Cannetti
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Cannetti
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Bautista
Cannetti
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
68
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Bautista
Cannetti
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bautista
Cannetti
Striking2.5 / 3.3Volume5.9 / 4.8Grappling4.2 / 3.2Wrestling3.0 / 2.2Submission3.6 / 2.5Pressure5.5 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Bautista
Strike Zones
Cannetti
Bautista
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 absorbed
Cannetti
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (67% of attacks) — Cannetti absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Cannetti targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bautista
RND
Cannetti
0/0R00/0

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Cannetti · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0102.8L4.5W2.4L4.5W3.6L2.1L5.5L5.0W5.0W2.6L2014-112018-052021-082023-03
WinLossTrend

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

Cannetti · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Sub · R1
Randy CostaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · KO · R1
Kris MoutinhoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Mana MartinezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · KO · R1
Batgerel DanaaRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03

News & Media

Mario Bautista · Guido Cannetti
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