Mario Bautista vs Guido Cannetti — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

Las Vegas, USA

11 Mar 2023

Bantamweight

62%

Bautista

38%

Cannetti

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 3:18

Mario Bautista

17 – 3

5'9"69" reachSwitch33 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 56

Guido Cannetti

"Ninja"

10 – 8

Well-Rounded46 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'6"

CFR 34

★ Official Result

Mario BautistawinsSubmissionR1 · 3:18

def. Guido Cannetti · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Bautista

→

Actual result

Bautista wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Bautista holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Cannetti has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cannetti has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

BautistaCannetti

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Bautista

Cannetti

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'9"+

Height

5'6"

69"+

Reach

68"

33+

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

Bautista

Cannetti

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

56.3

34.3

54.5

Performance Avg

40.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Bautista

Cannetti

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.4

/ 10

3.3

/ 10

5.3

Style: Pressure

4.7

6.3

Style: Volume

4.8

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

0Distance2

1Clinch0

2Ground0

Bautista

Cannetti

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.1

/ 10

3.2

/ 10

2.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.2

3.3

Submission Style (/10)

2.5

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Bautista

Cannetti

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

11 fights ago

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

15/20 fights

Chin rating based on

10/18 fights

Bautista

Cannetti

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R1

W · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

Bautista

Cannetti

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

42%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bautista

Cannetti

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.3

4.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.2

2.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.2

3.3

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.5

5.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.7

6.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.8

Bautista

Strike Zones

Cannetti

Bautista

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Cannetti

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Bautista targets the head (67% of attacks) — Cannetti absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Cannetti targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bautista

RND

Cannetti

0/0R00/0

Bautista · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Cory Sandhagen

Decision

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · Sub · R2

Vinicius Oliveira

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Umar Nurmagomedov

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · Dec · R3

Patchy Mix

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Jose Aldo

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

Cannetti · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Mario Bautista

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

W · Sub · R1

Randy Costa

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10

W · KO · R1

Kris Moutinho

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

L · Dec · R3

Mana Martinez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08

L · KO · R1

Batgerel Danaa

KO/TKO

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03

News & Media

Mario Bautista · Guido Cannetti

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