UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
59%
Pendred
41%
Howard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CP
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
17 – 4
6'1"75" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
JH
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24 – 13
Well-Rounded43 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'7"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pendred

This is a genuine toss-up — Pendred at 59% vs Howard at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Pendred throws more volume but Howard connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Howard has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pendred
Howard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'7"
75"+
Reach
72"
38+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pendred
Howard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
13.7
45.3
Performance Avg
40.1
31
Quality of Victory
34
99
Momentum Score
40
Pendred
Howard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
57%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
13
6
Body
2
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance12
6Clinch5
0Ground1
Pendred
Howard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pendred
Howard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
46
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/21 fights
Chin rating based on
14/37 fights
Pendred
Howard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pendred
Howard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pendred
Howard
Striking1.3 / 3.9Volume7.3 / 6.7Grappling3.8 / 1.7Wrestling2.7 / 1.2Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Pendred
Strike Zones
Howard
Pendred
Attacking
3HEAD6BODY4LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY3LEGS18 absorbed
Howard
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY3LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD6BODY4LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pendred targets the body (46% of attacks) — Howard absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Howard targets the head (72% of attacks) — Pendred absorbs 72% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pendred
RND
Howard
0/0R00/0

Pendred · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L2014-072014-102015-012015-062015-072015-10
WinLossTrend

Howard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W2.8L2009-012010-082013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Pendred · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
John HowardRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Augusto MontanoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10

Howard · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Tim MeansRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · KO · R1
Lorenz LarkinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04

News & Media

Cathal Pendred · John Howard
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