UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
7 Sept 2019
Lightweight
VS
76%
Azaitar
24%
Packalen
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Azaitar
Azaitar is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Azaitar throws more volume but Packalen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Azaitar's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Packalen has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Azaitar
Packalen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+75"
36+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Azaitar
Packalen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.8
16.0
52.0
Performance Avg
42.4
60
Quality of Victory
54
33
Momentum Score
29
Azaitar
Packalen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.2
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
55%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
3
2
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance3
8Clinch5
1Ground0
Azaitar
Packalen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Azaitar
Packalen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
54
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/16 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Azaitar
Packalen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
29
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Azaitar
Packalen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Azaitar
Packalen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
AzaitarPackalen
Strike Zones
Azaitar
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedPackalen
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Azaitar targets the head (81% of attacks) — Packalen absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Packalen targets the body (63% of attacks) — Azaitar absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Azaitar
RND
Packalen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Azaitar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Packalen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Azaitar · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Francisco PradoRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R1
Khama WorthyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Teemu PackalenRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
Packalen · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Marc DiakieseRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Thibault GoutiRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Mickael LeboutRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · 2015-07