UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
Sunrise, USA
8 Jun 2012
Bantamweight
VS
86%
Pague
14%
Papazian
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pague
Pague is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pague has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.
Striking split: Papazian throws more volume but Pague connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pague's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pague
Papazian
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
67"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pague
Papazian
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.6
2.4
39.1
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
20
Momentum Score
0
Pague
Papazian
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
35%
0.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
1
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance6
1Clinch1
1Ground0
Pague
Papazian
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pague
Papazian
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/23 fights
Chin rating based on
3/33 fights
Pague
Papazian
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Pague
Papazian
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pague
Papazian
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
PaguePapazian
Strike Zones
Pague
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedPapazian
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pague targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Papazian absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Papazian targets the head (86% of attacks) — Pague absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pague
RND
Papazian
0/0R00/0
Pague · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Papazian · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Pague · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Yves JabouinRating 5.5Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
L · Dec · R3
Chico CamusRating 5.5Decision
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
L · Dec · R3
Ken StoneRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jared PapazianRating 5Submission
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
Papazian · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Sub · R1
Dustin PagueRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · Dec · R3
Mike EastonRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01