UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Orlando, USA
3 Dec 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
93%
Jauregui
7%
Nunes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jauregui
Jauregui is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jauregui has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Jauregui throws more volume but Nunes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jauregui's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nunes has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jauregui
Nunes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
64"
Reach
+66"
27+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jauregui
Nunes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.9
3.2
45.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
48
Momentum Score
0
Jauregui
Nunes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
0.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
7
2
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
5Clinch4
22Ground0
Jauregui
Nunes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jauregui
Nunes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
40
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/13 fights
Chin rating based on
5/12 fights
Jauregui
Nunes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Jauregui
Nunes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jauregui
Nunes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
JaureguiNunes
Strike Zones
Jauregui
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedNunes
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jauregui targets the head (90% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Nunes targets the head (58% of attacks) — Jauregui absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jauregui
RND
Nunes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Jauregui · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Nunes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Jauregui · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Ketlen SouzaRating 1.9Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Sam HughesRating 5.2Decision
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L · KO · R1
Denise GomesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Istela NunesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
Nunes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Loma LookboonmeeRating 6.4Decision
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L · KO · R1
Viktoriia DudakovaRating 2.1KO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Yazmin JaureguiRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sam HughesRating 6.2Decision
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L · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiRating 5Submission
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