UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Welterweight
VS
55%
Neal
45%
Ponzinibbio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Neal
This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 55% vs Ponzinibbio at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Neal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ponzinibbio has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
73"
35+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
45.7
51.7
Performance Avg
50.5
48
Quality of Victory
44
72
Momentum Score
46
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
2.1
55%
Strike Accuracy
45%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
44
Head
30
1
Body
3
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
46Distance39
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
4
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
20/40 fights
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
58%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
NealPonzinibbio
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
46 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedPonzinibbio
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
46 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (96% of attacks) — Ponzinibbio absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Ponzinibbio targets the head (77% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Ponzinibbio
0/0R00/0
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Ponzinibbio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
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Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
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L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1Submission
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Ponzinibbio · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Carlston HarrisRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · KO · R3
Kevin HollandRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
W · KO · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5KO/TKO
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