METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Welterweight
VS
58%
Neal
42%
Ponzinibbio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Geoff NealwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Santiago Ponzinibbio · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Neal
→
Actual result
Neal wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 58% vs Ponzinibbio at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ponzinibbio has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NealPonzinibbio
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
73"
36+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
40.9
51.7
Performance Avg
49.4
48
Quality of Victory
44
72
Momentum Score
26
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
7.0
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
5.8
3.1
Style: Volume
4.5
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
44
Head
30
1
Body
3
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
46Distance39
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
21/40 fights
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
58%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Ponzinibbio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
NealPonzinibbio
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
46 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedPonzinibbio
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
46 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (96% of attacks) — Ponzinibbio absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Ponzinibbio targets the head (77% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Ponzinibbio
0/0R00/0
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesKO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Ponzinibbio · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Sam PattersonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07
L · KO · R3
Daniel RodriguezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Carlston HarrisKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · KO · R3
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04