UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Jan 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
49%
Craig
51%
Walker
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:16
Paul
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17 – 10
6'3"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 49
Johnny
Johnny Walker
22 – 10
Knockout Artist34 yrsOrthodox82" reach6'6"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Walker

This is a genuine toss-up — Craig at 49% vs Walker at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Walker has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Craig's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Walker has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Craig
Walker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'6"
76"
Reach
+82"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Craig
Walker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
50.4
50.4
Performance Avg
54.6
52
Quality of Victory
56
46
Momentum Score
41
Craig
Walker
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.0
47%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
12
1
Body
1
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
3Distance6
0Clinch5
0Ground5
Craig
Walker
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Craig
Walker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Craig
Walker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
41
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
Craig
Walker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
88%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Craig
Walker
Striking4.3 / 8.6Volume0.9 / 2.1Grappling5.3 / 1.3Wrestling3.7 / 0.9Submission6.7 / 1.3Pressure8.4 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.6
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Craig
Strike Zones
Walker
Craig
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY3LEGS16 absorbed
Walker
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY3LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Craig targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Walker targets the head (75% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Craig
RND
Walker
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Craig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W2.5L2.4L7.0W5.5L6.8W2.4L5.0W5.0W5.2W6.3W6.2W6.3L2.3L6.2W4.1L4.1L7.2L2.3L2016-122019-032021-062023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Walker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.9W5.0W5.0W1.5L6.7L5.4W5.5L2.8L5.3W5.7W5.7W3.7L2.3L7.2W6.5L2018-112020-032022-092024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

Walker · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Dominick ReyesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Zhang MingyangRating 7.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Volkan OezdemirRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Magomed AnkalaevRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

News & Media

Paul Craig · Johnny Walker
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